Question Marks Galore

On the eve of the kickoff to the NBA season, I'm starting to worry a bit about my team. For various reasons, many of my middle-round picks are not looking to hot these days:

Mike Dunleavy - Word has it his knee is still bothering him, enough that he'll miss at least the first game. Considering that I drafted Dunleavy in the 4th round, this is not good news to say the least. However, I did manage to grab Marquis Daniels off of waivers, who should fill the void until Dunleavy returns. There will undoubtedly be a dropoff in production with Daniels but he'll be starting in Dunleavy's place and will hopefully be able to produce some decent STL's and AST's.

Jamario Moon - It's unclear how many minutes Moon is going to get, given his weak preseason play. Given the efficiency make up of my team, Moon plays a pivotal role in securing me some blocks and steals. I'm going to keep him on the bench in cases where my lineup is full and wait to see if he can get back on Sam Mitchell's good graces again.

Peja Stojakovic - I've already mentioned how this was a mistake pick for me. However, given the question marks on my team, I'm tempted to start him if only because he should help my PTS's and maybe STL's. The ideal scenario would be for him to go off with five or six 3-PT's in a game so that I can trade him and get someone more suitable for my team in return (e.g. AK-47, Deng, Salmons).

Nick Collison - He's a minor question mark due to the surprisingly solid play of Johan Petro in the preseason.  But with Wilcox on the dinged up, I think Collison should get his minutes even if he's not at center. 

Here's my lineup for the week as well as my opponent's.

PG - Calderon (me) / Billups (him)
SG - Daniels (me) / Kobe (him)
G - Andre Miller (me) / Turkoglu (him)
SF - Amir Johnson (me) / Beasley (him)
PF - Garnett (me) / Duncan (him)
F - Al Jefferson (me) / Okafor (him)
C - David Lee (me) / Nene (him)
C - Collison (me) / Perkins (him)
Util - Brewer (me) / Bibby (him)
Util - Carter (me) / Derrick Rose (him)
Bench - Westbrook (me) / Posey (him)
Bench - Sean Williams (me) / Pietrus (him)
Bench - Peja (me) / Fisher (him)
Bench - Dunleavy (me) / Jeff Green (him)
Bench - Moon (me) / Grant Hill (him)

My opponent has a pretty solid team, with obvious strengths over my team in PTS and 3's and probably BLKS's too. I think I've got him beat in FG and TO's and I probably have an advantage in STL's. That leaves REB, FT and AST as the toss up cats. I think I can improve my REB's by rotating Moon and Williams in while Westbrook should probably be able to help me with AST's. Regardless, I would consider myself an underdog this week so I'm definitely going to have to get a little lucky.

H2H Road Map

As an H2H newbie, I fully expect this season to be an ongoing learning experience.  The biggest challenge will probably be figuring out how to adjust and improve my team after the seasons begins and my team's strengths and weaknesses become clearer.  My league has 12 teams and each team has five bench spots so the waiver wire is going to be pretty thin throughout the year.  Since I'm playing with a bunch of new people, I'm not sure how easy it'll be to make trades.  I've got a few question marks on my roster so for now I'm just going to adopt a wait-and-see approach.

Despite being new to H2H, I do have some specific strategies that I will employ that I believe will lead to success:

Understand Your Opponent

This is probably the biggest difference between H2H and roto.  Most teams you face throughout the season will have some sort of team profile: Big Ball, Small Ball, Efficiency, etc.  While you hopefully have your own team profile, it is beneficial to assess your opponent's strengths and weaknesses in deciding which players on your team to play.  Quick example: if your opponent is a classic Big Ball squad and you have a Small Ball team, then you just play your best players and hope to win the x-factor categories (in this case, probably PTS).  However, let's say you and your opponent both have Big Ball teams.  In that case, I might focus on trying to exploit your opponent's weaknesses and start a few guys who can help you win 3's and AST.  It all depends on the makeup of your team and how it matches up with your opponent's team.

Load Up the Lineup 

My league has daily transactions so my plan is to never leave anyone on the bench unless their position eligibilities forces me to do so (e.g. I have a center on the bench and both C and Util spots are already filled).  Even though I am trying to win via the efficiency strategy, the benefits still outweigh the drawbacks in having as many players generating numbers as possible.  Bear in mind that this means you'll need to check your team on a daily basis, which I think shouldn't be asking too much if you're a serious fantasy basketball player.

Ready to Contribute

In order to successfully load up the lineup, I'm going to need to have a bench that can contribute right away.  This means not unloading from the bench any guys who are injured (e.g. Manu, Ellis, Arenas) or who may not get substantial minutes early on (e.g. Eric Gordon, Jerryd Bayless, Wilson Chandler).  In roto, you're afforded the luxury of keeping guys on your bench and waiting for them to blow up since game caps limit how often you can run your players out on the court.  In H2H, stashing guys on your bench is a risky bet because it essentially eats up a spot that could be used by someone else who can add value to your team right now.

Flexible When Possible

Due to the frequent lineup adjustments, it is to your advantage to have players with flexible position eligibilities (e.g. PF/C's, SG/SF's).  This will help you play as many guys each day as possible.  Unfortunately, my team is not very flexible, as I seem to have a crap load of PG's and PF/C's (doesn't help me with SG and SF).  Now this is not to say you wouldn't go after a guy who isn't eligible for multiple positions; I'm not going to ding Deron Williams because he only plays PG.  But if you're deciding between two players who offer fairly equal value, there's something to be said about going with the one who can play the most positions.

Ride the Hot Hand (aka "the Ramon Sessions Phenomenon")

Invariably, there will be a couple random guys that come out of nowhere and go off for a few games.  In roto, I might dismiss that as flukey and not worth my time.  But in H2H, I'm going to grab that guy and run him out on the court as long as he's hot.  Once he fizzles out -- which we know he will -- then you can move on to the next flavor of the week.  The key is to always have one spot on your bench that you can quickly swap guys in and out on a whim.  Utilizing this strategy, I'm expecting to squeak out a couple cheap victories during the season.

Roll Call

Quick intro of my H2H team this year.  I am in a 12-team, 9-cat Yahoo league with a bunch of guys who I play real-life basketball with.  We had our draft last week -- here's a recap of what went down. 

 

Going into my first ever H2H draft, I knew I wanted to accomplish three things:

 

- Punt no more than one category

- Go Big Ball or Small Ball (I didn't believe the other strategies would lead to success)

- Draft players who would get playing time early on

 

45 minutes before the draft began, I found out I had the #9 pick (side note: I hate leagues that don't determine the draft order in advance.  Completely hinders one's ability to strategize.). With the #9 pick, I was thinking I'd probably get Garnett, Wade or Marion, which was fine except that each player would lead me to adopt a different strategy.  Ultimately, it went down like this:

 

Round 1 - Kevin Garnett

 

I'm honestly not too high on Garnett this year.  Boston doesn't like its starters playing too many minutes and Garnett's numbers last year reflected that. However, I really couldn't justify reaching for Butler or AI at the 9th spot so Garnett it was. Plus you can't argue with the across the board production that Garnett provides.

 

Round 2 - Al Jefferson

 

After drafting Garnett, my immediate thought was to go Big Ball and Jefferson makes for a great compliment.  Great FG, points, rebounds and blocks and I've got my fingers crossed that he improves his FT this year.  A small part of me thought about going after Howard at this point, but I didn't like the idea of having to punt two categories -- pretty much a given if you draft Howard.  In retrospect, I suppose I could've picked Bosh and gone the efficiency route but I was happy with Jefferson.

 

Round 3 - Jose Calderon

 

Three rounds into the draft and I experience my first moment of hesitation.  In trying to stick with my Big Ball strategy, I had my eye on Calderon for his solid FG at the PG position.  However, Rudy Gay was still on the board at that time and I was picturing all the blocks he would put up from the SF position.  In the end, I went with Calderon because of the scarcity of quality PG's and because Garnett puts up decent assist numbers from the PF spot.

 

Round 4 - Mike Dunleavy

 

Once I grabbed Calderon, I decided to switch gears and improve on my efficiency numbers.  My thought was that since my first three picks had good FG and TO numbers, I should try to build on that.  Dunleavy was a great fit for both cats plus he provided a boost in terms of points, steals, FT and rebounds.  I'm a little worried that last year was a fluke but I figured he was worth the risk in Round 4 (other option would've been Pierce but the TO's and FG scared me off).

 

Round 5 - Andre Miller

 

At this point, I'm full blown committed to sticking with the efficiency strategy.  Miller's TO's are a slight concern but still pretty good for a PG.  Drafting Miller helped me solidify FG, assists and steals while not losing too much in terms of rebounds and FT.  Aldridge was a possibility at that point as well but I'm not too keen on anyone from Portland this year due to their deep rotation.  Overall, I was very happy with this pick.

 

Round 6 - David Lee

 

The fact that Lee was C eligibility makes this an easy pick for me.  Efficiency stats stayed strong plus I got a boost in rebounds and maybe points and steals.  I am a little worried about my lack of blocks and 3's at this point and am starting to worry that I'll have to punt more than one category.  This made for a highly questionable pick in Round 7 ...

 

Round 7 - Peja Stojakovic

 

This was arguably my worst pick of the draft.  In stressing out about my lack of 3's, I end up drafting a player that doesn't really help me anywhere else.  His TO numbers are nice but his FG hurts and his FT is very misleading given his scant attempts per game (1.8 last year).  I was actually ready to draft Kirilenko here but he was snatched up one pick before me.  Looking back, given the makeup of my team at that point, I should've made the decision to punt 3's and drafted Ilgauskas.  Needless to say, Peja is trade bait the moment he goes off for seven 3's in a game.

 

Round 8 - Jamario Moon

 

At the time, I really liked this pick.  Moon is the model of efficiency and a nice "glue guy" for my team.  However, looking back, I worry that drafting Moon put me in a bind in terms of points since I already have Calderon and Miller.  So while I might've addressed the blocks issue, I may have created a new hole with my team's lack of scoring.

 

Round 9 - Nick Collison

 

Since I only had two centers up to this point, I decided more depth would make sense at this point.  Collison being available in round 9 was a bit of surprise, considering the numbers he put up last year.  While he does little to nothing for me in terms of blocks and points, his %'s and rebounding prowess are helpful.

Round 10 - Ronnie Brewer

Solid addition for my efficiency strategy, as Brewer's obvious strengths are FG, steals and TO's.  But I still didn't address my lack of 3's and points and I'm now worried that I've overdone it with the efficient players.  I considered grabbing Garcia at this point but I don't really think he would've helped in the right categories.

Round 11 - Russell Westbrook

Not a good pick.  Aside from rookie PG's rarely being efficient, he's also in a timeshare with Earl Watson.  While I am fully convinced that Westbrook will eventually win the starting gig, I'm not sure if he helps my team at this point.  Blame it on the UCLA homer in me.

Round 12 - Amir Johnson

This was perhaps my favorite pick of the draft.  I am REALLY high on Johnson this year and I think he has breakout written all over him.  Granted, he still needs to carve out playing time in Detroit's loaded front court but I think he'll maintain his starting gig and put up pretty solid numbers (52% FG, 12 pts, 8 RB, 1 STL, 2.5 BLK).  Plus the pick helps me with blocks, which leaves me only two cats that I realistically have to punt (PTS and 3's).

Round 13 - Sean Williams

I wanted Millsap here, as he sneaky good STL and BLK value despite his limited minutes.  But he went one pick before me so I opted for Williams instead.  I think Williams is a lot like Amir Johnson, minus the playing time.  If he gets the minutes, he should put up solid blocks and rebounds while shooting a high FG.  If Williams doesn't get the minutes right away, he'll probably end up on the waiver wire.

Round 14 - Mikki Moore

Sort of a throwaway pick.  I have no idea if he can maintain the starting gig in Sacramento and, even if he does, I don't think he's going to add a lot of value except for FG, points and maybe rebounds.  But he's the starter now and I suppose there is a chance he'll surprise some people this year.

Round 15 - Jerryd Bayless

Another throwaway pick.  I dropped him immediately afterwards for Anthony Carter.

PG - Jose Calderon

SG - Mike Dunleavy

G - Andre Miller

SF - Jamario Moon

PF - Kevin Garnett

F - Al Jefferson

C - David Lee

C - Nick Collison

Util - Ronnie Brewer

Util - Amir Johnson

Bench - Mikki Moore

Bench - Anthony Carter

Bench - Russell Westbrook

Bench - Peja Stojakovic

Bench - Sean Williams

Analysis

Strong/Dominate: FG, TO, REB, STL, AST

Competitive: FT, PTS, BLK

Weak/Punt: 3's

Overall, I feel good about my team, despite having my Big Ball strategy evolve into a combo Big Ball/Efficiency strategy.  I don't think I did particularly well drafting guys who would get playing time right away but it remains to be seen how some of the position battles play out  I'm also worried that I won't be as competitive in PTS as I think I'll be, especially now that I have Peja on my bench.  But I think I'm strong in enough cats that I can definitely stay afloat as things get flushed out.