Week 1 "Victory" + Streakness

So I managed to squeeze out a victory in Week 1, thanks in part to Westbrook's late flurry of steals last night. The boost in steals sealed the deal for me at 5-4, which isn't pretty but a win nonetheless. Or so I thought.

When I logged in this morning, I noticed that I was in 6th place, one game behind the leader. Much to my dismay, Yahoo counts the total cats that you've won/lost, as opposed to actual weekly opponents that you defeat/are defeated by (similar to fantasy football). As a result, three teams who finished 6-3 and one team that won 5-3-1 are all above me and another guy at 5-4. I'm not even sure why the other 5-4 guy is fifth and I'm sixth. I looked through Yahoo's explanation on tiebreakers and it doesn't exactly say so I'm thinking the first week tiebreakers are decided by random coin flips. I'll definitely need to keep an eye on this as the season goes on.

But back to the Week 1 victory. After one week, my team's strengths and weaknesses have already begun to materialize. In order from strongest to weakest strengths and weakest to strongest weakness:

Strengths
FG
AST
STL
TO
REB
FT

Weaknesses
3's
PTS
BLK

My strengths are pretty on par with what I thought they would be, though I am a little surprised by how strong I am in STL. The biggest surprise is probably my weakness in BLK, though I finished ranked 9th in the league but only six back from the team in 1st. So I'm thinking blocks is more a cat that's somewhere in the middle of a strength and a weakness (streakness, anyone?).

For this week, I'm going up against a team that's strong in 3's, FT and maybe TO's. He looks pretty weak in every other category so I think I might have a shot to take this down 6-3. However, he has 45 player games this week compared to my 40, though he also has Redd and Chandler, who are both banged up. So when it's all said and done, we probably will end up playing roughly an equal number of player games this week. To be honest, the greatest concern right now is that I've got a number of players with questionable PT at this point:

Anthony Carter

By now, I'm sure you've heard about the AI/Billups trade. The biggest loser in the trade has to be Carter, as he will likely be relegated to Billups' backup unless Karl decides to get creative and start Billups at PG and Carter at SG, which doesn't make sense given that JR Smith is on the bench right now. I proposed a few borderline ridiclous trades to some teams to see if anyone might still have faith in Carter. The chances are slim but it's worth a shot before I dump Carter to the waiver wire.

Amir Johnson

He put up a stinker in his last game due to the fact that he was in foul trouble for most of the game. His inconsistent minutes worries me, especially if he continues his fouling ways. However, with McDyess shipped off to Denver, there's a chance that Amir will see an increase in minutes moving forward.

Darrell Arthur

He only got 13 minutes in his last time out. In looking at the box scores, my guess is Warrick played well and Ivaroni decided to ride the hot hand. This is slightly troubling because if Warrick can keep it up, I don't see Arthur getting too much playing time at either the SF or PF spot.

Ronnie Brewer

Kyle Korver has been cutting into his playing time so far and it doesn't look like that's going to change any time soon. The good news is that Korver has a wrist injury right now so Brewer should get more minutes in the short term.

Feeling Nervous + Digging Deep WW-Style

Now that the season is under way, the waiver wire in my league has been blazing.  With 12 teams and five bench slots, it's pretty slim pickings out on the WW.  This is unfortunate because my team is struggling big time right now.  Some reasons for concern:

 

Peja - I decided to play him to try to improve in 3's this week.  Things were going great last night until he sprained his ankle.  It's unclear how long he'll be out but it sounds like it could be awhile.  This mean I will have to carry both him and Dunleavy on my bench as they recover -- probably not a recipe for success in H2H.

 

Moon - He only got 24 minutes of PT in his first game, as Mitchell played Kapono at the end of the game.  During that 24 minutes, he put up a very pedestrian line, which makes me worry that last year was a huge fluke.  I plan on running him out there a couple more times but I'm preparing myself to cut bait if necessary.

 

Sean Williams - He got zero minutes in his first game so I dropped him for Darrell Arthur.  I know Arthur is a rookie but I think he's got enough athleticism and energy that he can put up decent numbers in rebounds, blocks and steals.  Plus Memphis is going to be terrible this year so there's no reason not to play the rookies.

 

Going back to the waiver wire -- I didn't fully realize how thin it was until I tried to pick up certain players.

 

"Chalmers looks like he had a good game.  (Look up Chalmers)  Damn, already drafted."

 

"Prince might have some good value.  (Look up Prince)  Wow, someone actually drafted Tayshaun?"

 

And so on and so forth. 

 

Other guys who I had my eye on (Mason, Jason Thompson) were quickly snatched up after their strong performances.  At this point, there's not a whole lot of value left on the WW.  However, there are a couple guys I'm monitoring if I do decide to make some moves:

 

Francisco Garcia - He's hurt right now but he should be back some time in mid to late November.  Once he returns, I think he can help out in terms of steals and 3's.

 

Paul Millsap - I know he doesn't get a ton of minutes in Utah but he's ultra productive when he plays, to the tune of averaging almost a block and a steal last season while pulling down 5.5 rebounds.  He's a good fit for my team and his value would only shoot up if someone on Utah's frontline gets hurt.

 

Jordan Farmar - You'd think at some point, he'll take over for Fisher, though I think Phil Jackson probably prefers him leading the second unit.  Regardless of whether he starts or not, Farmar should be good for AST, 3's and maybe some steals.

It's not looking good for Week 1, as I'm currently down 6-3.  At this point, I'm hoping to eek out cheap wins in a couple cats to take it down 5-4.  Assists (34 to 41) and 3's (9 to 10) are the most logical choices, followed by steals (11 to 19).  With Calderon, Miller and Carter playing tonight, I should probably be able to take AST down.  3's are going to be tricky without Peja so I'm hoping Calderon and Carter can surprise me.  STL's is such a tossup cat but here's hoping Moon and Arthur go nuts with the thievery tonight.

Quick Rewind

Morning After

As a seasoned fantasy basketball player, I'm usually pretty good about not freaking out early on in the year. And while I'm not quite in freak-out mode yet, I am definitely a little worried about Garnett this year. My observations from last night's game:

The Good: Got a healthy 36+ min and looked active and energized.
The Bad: He was mostly shooting jumpers and he seemed to have trouble boxing out Varejao for rebounds.
The Ugly: 5-15 from the field. 1-4 from the free throw line. 6 rebounds. 0 blocks. Not exactly the type of performance you'd expect from your first round pick.

But like I said, I'm not really worried yet. I'm hoping he was just caught up with the whole ring ceremony so here's hoping he bounces back on Friday against the Bulls.

Matchup Check

So my opponent has jumped out to a 7-1 lead, mostly because his team played four guys to my one last night. In looking at the breakdown, I think the cats that I will need to focus on to win this week will be TO, FG, STL, BLK and then hopefully two of the following three - FT, AST, 3's. At this point, I think I'll probably punt PTS unless someone on my team goes off tonight.

Lineup Choices

Tonight is a full slate of games so I won't be able to start everyone. I'm deciding between Peja, Brewer, Westbrook, Marquis Daniels and Moon and I can start three of them (players in red are the ones I'm leaning towards):

Peja - I'm surprisingly close in 3's (currently only down by 1) so I'm thinking about playing him tonight against Golden State and then reassessing after tonight's games.

Brewer - I like the STL's and FG but he's not going to help me anywhere else (not that he was in the first place).  

Westbrook - Could be huge in terms of 3's, STL's and AST's. But he could all kill my FG and produce a ton of TO's.  Plus he's got that pesky timeshare with Watson so I'm going to keep him on the bench for now.

Daniels - I'm not really sure what he's going to bring to the table while Dunleavy is out. In the preseason, he was putting big time numbers in 3's, REB's and STL's.  Detroit's not the best matchup in the world but I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt for now.

Moon - Apparently, he's going to start but that doesn't mean he'll get enough minutes to be productive. If he plays though, he should be a huge boost in terms of BLKS, STL's and REB's.  

I have a feeling I'm going to be tinkering with the lineup up until the last minute.

Head Scratcher

In an effort to bolster my lineup, I decided to propose the following trade:

My Peja

for

His AK-47

As I've previously mentioned, Peja is not a very good fit for my team, given his strengths (3's, PTS) and weakenesses (FG, REB, BLK). I decided to go after Kirilenko because he was strong in all the right cats plus the other team could actually stand to benefit from having someone like Peja (he also has Okur, Lewis and J-Rich). Logical trade right?

Well, the other guy ended up rejecting my trade today. Didn't give a reason why. As I was contemplating trying to come up with a different offer, I logged into my team and noticed that he had made the following waiver wire transaction:

Dropped Jason Richardson, Picked up Michael Finley

Uh ... hello? Dropping J-Rich and Michael Finley?

I seriously had to do a double take to make sure it was not Jerome Richardson or some other Richardson that I hadn't heard of before. But, no, it was indeed J-Rich from Charlotte. I was completely confused by why the guy would drop J-Rich for Finley. But before I let my confusion set in, I immediately put in a waiver wire request on him and now I'll just have to see if I can land him (I have the 4th waiver priority).

IF I am able to land J-Rich, that would significantly alter the makeup of my team. With J-Rich, Peja and Dunleavy, I would actually be strong in 3's. His scoring would also help me a lot more competitive in PTS. In other words, he would help my team A LOT. Just gotta keep my fingers crossed that the three managers with higher waiver priorities aren't paying attention (fat chance, I know).

EDIT: The guy apparently had some computer issues and "accidentally" dropped J-Rich.  I guess that's a logical explanation.  In the name of goodwill, the league has decided to let him pick J-Rich after he clears waivers.  Oh well.  I knew it was too good to be true.

Question Marks Galore

On the eve of the kickoff to the NBA season, I'm starting to worry a bit about my team. For various reasons, many of my middle-round picks are not looking to hot these days:

Mike Dunleavy - Word has it his knee is still bothering him, enough that he'll miss at least the first game. Considering that I drafted Dunleavy in the 4th round, this is not good news to say the least. However, I did manage to grab Marquis Daniels off of waivers, who should fill the void until Dunleavy returns. There will undoubtedly be a dropoff in production with Daniels but he'll be starting in Dunleavy's place and will hopefully be able to produce some decent STL's and AST's.

Jamario Moon - It's unclear how many minutes Moon is going to get, given his weak preseason play. Given the efficiency make up of my team, Moon plays a pivotal role in securing me some blocks and steals. I'm going to keep him on the bench in cases where my lineup is full and wait to see if he can get back on Sam Mitchell's good graces again.

Peja Stojakovic - I've already mentioned how this was a mistake pick for me. However, given the question marks on my team, I'm tempted to start him if only because he should help my PTS's and maybe STL's. The ideal scenario would be for him to go off with five or six 3-PT's in a game so that I can trade him and get someone more suitable for my team in return (e.g. AK-47, Deng, Salmons).

Nick Collison - He's a minor question mark due to the surprisingly solid play of Johan Petro in the preseason.  But with Wilcox on the dinged up, I think Collison should get his minutes even if he's not at center. 

Here's my lineup for the week as well as my opponent's.

PG - Calderon (me) / Billups (him)
SG - Daniels (me) / Kobe (him)
G - Andre Miller (me) / Turkoglu (him)
SF - Amir Johnson (me) / Beasley (him)
PF - Garnett (me) / Duncan (him)
F - Al Jefferson (me) / Okafor (him)
C - David Lee (me) / Nene (him)
C - Collison (me) / Perkins (him)
Util - Brewer (me) / Bibby (him)
Util - Carter (me) / Derrick Rose (him)
Bench - Westbrook (me) / Posey (him)
Bench - Sean Williams (me) / Pietrus (him)
Bench - Peja (me) / Fisher (him)
Bench - Dunleavy (me) / Jeff Green (him)
Bench - Moon (me) / Grant Hill (him)

My opponent has a pretty solid team, with obvious strengths over my team in PTS and 3's and probably BLKS's too. I think I've got him beat in FG and TO's and I probably have an advantage in STL's. That leaves REB, FT and AST as the toss up cats. I think I can improve my REB's by rotating Moon and Williams in while Westbrook should probably be able to help me with AST's. Regardless, I would consider myself an underdog this week so I'm definitely going to have to get a little lucky.

H2H Road Map

As an H2H newbie, I fully expect this season to be an ongoing learning experience.  The biggest challenge will probably be figuring out how to adjust and improve my team after the seasons begins and my team's strengths and weaknesses become clearer.  My league has 12 teams and each team has five bench spots so the waiver wire is going to be pretty thin throughout the year.  Since I'm playing with a bunch of new people, I'm not sure how easy it'll be to make trades.  I've got a few question marks on my roster so for now I'm just going to adopt a wait-and-see approach.

Despite being new to H2H, I do have some specific strategies that I will employ that I believe will lead to success:

Understand Your Opponent

This is probably the biggest difference between H2H and roto.  Most teams you face throughout the season will have some sort of team profile: Big Ball, Small Ball, Efficiency, etc.  While you hopefully have your own team profile, it is beneficial to assess your opponent's strengths and weaknesses in deciding which players on your team to play.  Quick example: if your opponent is a classic Big Ball squad and you have a Small Ball team, then you just play your best players and hope to win the x-factor categories (in this case, probably PTS).  However, let's say you and your opponent both have Big Ball teams.  In that case, I might focus on trying to exploit your opponent's weaknesses and start a few guys who can help you win 3's and AST.  It all depends on the makeup of your team and how it matches up with your opponent's team.

Load Up the Lineup 

My league has daily transactions so my plan is to never leave anyone on the bench unless their position eligibilities forces me to do so (e.g. I have a center on the bench and both C and Util spots are already filled).  Even though I am trying to win via the efficiency strategy, the benefits still outweigh the drawbacks in having as many players generating numbers as possible.  Bear in mind that this means you'll need to check your team on a daily basis, which I think shouldn't be asking too much if you're a serious fantasy basketball player.

Ready to Contribute

In order to successfully load up the lineup, I'm going to need to have a bench that can contribute right away.  This means not unloading from the bench any guys who are injured (e.g. Manu, Ellis, Arenas) or who may not get substantial minutes early on (e.g. Eric Gordon, Jerryd Bayless, Wilson Chandler).  In roto, you're afforded the luxury of keeping guys on your bench and waiting for them to blow up since game caps limit how often you can run your players out on the court.  In H2H, stashing guys on your bench is a risky bet because it essentially eats up a spot that could be used by someone else who can add value to your team right now.

Flexible When Possible

Due to the frequent lineup adjustments, it is to your advantage to have players with flexible position eligibilities (e.g. PF/C's, SG/SF's).  This will help you play as many guys each day as possible.  Unfortunately, my team is not very flexible, as I seem to have a crap load of PG's and PF/C's (doesn't help me with SG and SF).  Now this is not to say you wouldn't go after a guy who isn't eligible for multiple positions; I'm not going to ding Deron Williams because he only plays PG.  But if you're deciding between two players who offer fairly equal value, there's something to be said about going with the one who can play the most positions.

Ride the Hot Hand (aka "the Ramon Sessions Phenomenon")

Invariably, there will be a couple random guys that come out of nowhere and go off for a few games.  In roto, I might dismiss that as flukey and not worth my time.  But in H2H, I'm going to grab that guy and run him out on the court as long as he's hot.  Once he fizzles out -- which we know he will -- then you can move on to the next flavor of the week.  The key is to always have one spot on your bench that you can quickly swap guys in and out on a whim.  Utilizing this strategy, I'm expecting to squeak out a couple cheap victories during the season.

Roll Call

Quick intro of my H2H team this year.  I am in a 12-team, 9-cat Yahoo league with a bunch of guys who I play real-life basketball with.  We had our draft last week -- here's a recap of what went down. 

 

Going into my first ever H2H draft, I knew I wanted to accomplish three things:

 

- Punt no more than one category

- Go Big Ball or Small Ball (I didn't believe the other strategies would lead to success)

- Draft players who would get playing time early on

 

45 minutes before the draft began, I found out I had the #9 pick (side note: I hate leagues that don't determine the draft order in advance.  Completely hinders one's ability to strategize.). With the #9 pick, I was thinking I'd probably get Garnett, Wade or Marion, which was fine except that each player would lead me to adopt a different strategy.  Ultimately, it went down like this:

 

Round 1 - Kevin Garnett

 

I'm honestly not too high on Garnett this year.  Boston doesn't like its starters playing too many minutes and Garnett's numbers last year reflected that. However, I really couldn't justify reaching for Butler or AI at the 9th spot so Garnett it was. Plus you can't argue with the across the board production that Garnett provides.

 

Round 2 - Al Jefferson

 

After drafting Garnett, my immediate thought was to go Big Ball and Jefferson makes for a great compliment.  Great FG, points, rebounds and blocks and I've got my fingers crossed that he improves his FT this year.  A small part of me thought about going after Howard at this point, but I didn't like the idea of having to punt two categories -- pretty much a given if you draft Howard.  In retrospect, I suppose I could've picked Bosh and gone the efficiency route but I was happy with Jefferson.

 

Round 3 - Jose Calderon

 

Three rounds into the draft and I experience my first moment of hesitation.  In trying to stick with my Big Ball strategy, I had my eye on Calderon for his solid FG at the PG position.  However, Rudy Gay was still on the board at that time and I was picturing all the blocks he would put up from the SF position.  In the end, I went with Calderon because of the scarcity of quality PG's and because Garnett puts up decent assist numbers from the PF spot.

 

Round 4 - Mike Dunleavy

 

Once I grabbed Calderon, I decided to switch gears and improve on my efficiency numbers.  My thought was that since my first three picks had good FG and TO numbers, I should try to build on that.  Dunleavy was a great fit for both cats plus he provided a boost in terms of points, steals, FT and rebounds.  I'm a little worried that last year was a fluke but I figured he was worth the risk in Round 4 (other option would've been Pierce but the TO's and FG scared me off).

 

Round 5 - Andre Miller

 

At this point, I'm full blown committed to sticking with the efficiency strategy.  Miller's TO's are a slight concern but still pretty good for a PG.  Drafting Miller helped me solidify FG, assists and steals while not losing too much in terms of rebounds and FT.  Aldridge was a possibility at that point as well but I'm not too keen on anyone from Portland this year due to their deep rotation.  Overall, I was very happy with this pick.

 

Round 6 - David Lee

 

The fact that Lee was C eligibility makes this an easy pick for me.  Efficiency stats stayed strong plus I got a boost in rebounds and maybe points and steals.  I am a little worried about my lack of blocks and 3's at this point and am starting to worry that I'll have to punt more than one category.  This made for a highly questionable pick in Round 7 ...

 

Round 7 - Peja Stojakovic

 

This was arguably my worst pick of the draft.  In stressing out about my lack of 3's, I end up drafting a player that doesn't really help me anywhere else.  His TO numbers are nice but his FG hurts and his FT is very misleading given his scant attempts per game (1.8 last year).  I was actually ready to draft Kirilenko here but he was snatched up one pick before me.  Looking back, given the makeup of my team at that point, I should've made the decision to punt 3's and drafted Ilgauskas.  Needless to say, Peja is trade bait the moment he goes off for seven 3's in a game.

 

Round 8 - Jamario Moon

 

At the time, I really liked this pick.  Moon is the model of efficiency and a nice "glue guy" for my team.  However, looking back, I worry that drafting Moon put me in a bind in terms of points since I already have Calderon and Miller.  So while I might've addressed the blocks issue, I may have created a new hole with my team's lack of scoring.

 

Round 9 - Nick Collison

 

Since I only had two centers up to this point, I decided more depth would make sense at this point.  Collison being available in round 9 was a bit of surprise, considering the numbers he put up last year.  While he does little to nothing for me in terms of blocks and points, his %'s and rebounding prowess are helpful.

Round 10 - Ronnie Brewer

Solid addition for my efficiency strategy, as Brewer's obvious strengths are FG, steals and TO's.  But I still didn't address my lack of 3's and points and I'm now worried that I've overdone it with the efficient players.  I considered grabbing Garcia at this point but I don't really think he would've helped in the right categories.

Round 11 - Russell Westbrook

Not a good pick.  Aside from rookie PG's rarely being efficient, he's also in a timeshare with Earl Watson.  While I am fully convinced that Westbrook will eventually win the starting gig, I'm not sure if he helps my team at this point.  Blame it on the UCLA homer in me.

Round 12 - Amir Johnson

This was perhaps my favorite pick of the draft.  I am REALLY high on Johnson this year and I think he has breakout written all over him.  Granted, he still needs to carve out playing time in Detroit's loaded front court but I think he'll maintain his starting gig and put up pretty solid numbers (52% FG, 12 pts, 8 RB, 1 STL, 2.5 BLK).  Plus the pick helps me with blocks, which leaves me only two cats that I realistically have to punt (PTS and 3's).

Round 13 - Sean Williams

I wanted Millsap here, as he sneaky good STL and BLK value despite his limited minutes.  But he went one pick before me so I opted for Williams instead.  I think Williams is a lot like Amir Johnson, minus the playing time.  If he gets the minutes, he should put up solid blocks and rebounds while shooting a high FG.  If Williams doesn't get the minutes right away, he'll probably end up on the waiver wire.

Round 14 - Mikki Moore

Sort of a throwaway pick.  I have no idea if he can maintain the starting gig in Sacramento and, even if he does, I don't think he's going to add a lot of value except for FG, points and maybe rebounds.  But he's the starter now and I suppose there is a chance he'll surprise some people this year.

Round 15 - Jerryd Bayless

Another throwaway pick.  I dropped him immediately afterwards for Anthony Carter.

PG - Jose Calderon

SG - Mike Dunleavy

G - Andre Miller

SF - Jamario Moon

PF - Kevin Garnett

F - Al Jefferson

C - David Lee

C - Nick Collison

Util - Ronnie Brewer

Util - Amir Johnson

Bench - Mikki Moore

Bench - Anthony Carter

Bench - Russell Westbrook

Bench - Peja Stojakovic

Bench - Sean Williams

Analysis

Strong/Dominate: FG, TO, REB, STL, AST

Competitive: FT, PTS, BLK

Weak/Punt: 3's

Overall, I feel good about my team, despite having my Big Ball strategy evolve into a combo Big Ball/Efficiency strategy.  I don't think I did particularly well drafting guys who would get playing time right away but it remains to be seen how some of the position battles play out  I'm also worried that I won't be as competitive in PTS as I think I'll be, especially now that I have Peja on my bench.  But I think I'm strong in enough cats that I can definitely stay afloat as things get flushed out.